On 7th January 2019, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the first advance estimates of National Income at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, for the financial year 2018-2019.
Approach for obtaining advanced estimate:
Compilation of the sector-wise Advance Estimates is based on the extrapolation of Benchmark-Indicator method. The Benchmark-Indicators used in the estimation include:
- Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of first 7 months of the financial year.
- Financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector available up to quarter ending September, 2018.
- 1st Advance Estimates of Crop production.
- Accounts of Central & State Governments, information on indicators like Deposits & Credits, Passenger and Freight earnings of Railways, Passengers and Cargo handled by Civil Aviation, Cargo handled at major Sea Ports, Sales of Commercial Vehicles, etc., available for first 8 months of the financial year 2018-2019.
Key Points of the Estimates based at constant prices (2011-12):
- India’s GDP would grow at 7.2% in 2018-19, showing acceleration from 6.7% growth in 2017-18 because of push from agriculture and manufacturing sectors. It is likely to attain a level of Rs. 139.52 lakh crore.
- Real GVA (Gross Value Added) is anticipated to grow at 7% in the current fiscal as against 6.5% in 2017-18. It is is anticipated to reach Rs.128.09 lakh crore in 2018-19.
- The growth rate in Per Capita Income is estimated at 6.1 percent during 2018-19, as against 5.4 per cent in the previous year. It is likely to attain a level of Rs.91,921 as compared to Rs.86,668 for the year 2017-18.
- The Ministry will release second advance estimates of national income for the year 2018-19 and quarterly GDP estimate for October-December quarter on February 28, 2019.
Sector wise Growth Estimates based at constant prices (2011-12):
- The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7.0% are: Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services, Construction, Manufacturing, Public Administration, Defence and Other Services.
- The expansion in activities in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ is likely to increase to 3.8% in the current fiscal from 3.4% in the preceding year.
- The growth of the manufacturing sector is expected to accelerate to 8.3% this fiscal, up from 5.7% in 2017-18.
- ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector is estimated to grow by 0.8 percent as compared to growth of 2.9 percent in 2017-18.
- ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ sector is expected to grow by 9.4 percent as compared to growth of 7.2 percent in 2017-18.
- ‘Construction’ sector is expected to grow by 8.9 percent as compared to growth of 5.7 percent in 2017-18.
- The growth estimates for the Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communication and Services related to Broadcasting services during 2018-19 is placed at 6.9 per cent as against growth of 8 percent in the previous year.
- The estimated growth in Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services sector during 2018-19 is placed at 6.8 percent as compared to growth of 6.6 percent in 2017-18.
- The Public Administration and Defence and Other Services sector is expected to grow by 8.9 percent as compared to growth of 10 percent in 2017-18.
Key Points of the Estimates based at current prices:
- The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in respect of the groups – Food Articles, Manufactured Products, Electricity and all Commodities, has risen by (-)0.9 per cent, 4.1 per cent, 6.8 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively during April-November 2018-19.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a rise of 3.9 percent during April-November, 2018-19.
- The GDP at Current Prices in the year 2018-19 is likely to attain a level of Rs.188.41l akh crore, as against Rs. 167.73 lakh crore in 2017-18 showing a growth rate of 12.3 percent.
- The nominal Net National Income (NNI), also known as National Income (at Current Prices) is likely to be Rs.167.03 lakh crore during 2018-19, as against Rs.148.49 lakh crore for the year 2017-18. It registered a growth rate of 12.5 percent in 2018-19 as against the previous year’s growth rate of 10.1 per cent.
- Besides the Per Capita Net National Income during 2018-19 is estimated to be Rs.1,25,397 showing a rise of 11.1 per cent as compared to Rs.1,12,835 during 2017-18 with the growth rate of 8.6 percent.
Key Points for Annual Estimates of Final Expenditures of GDP, 2018-19:
- The barometer of investment, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), at current prices is estimated at Rs.55.58 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs.47.79 lakh crore in 2017-18.
- The GFCF at constant (2011-12) Prices is estimated at Rs.45.86 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against ₹40.88 lakh crore in 2017-18.
- The discrepancies in the GDP estimates for current fiscal has been pegged at Rs.1,49,331 crore as against Rs.2,23,504 crore in 2017-18.
- The Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at Rs.21.70 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against ₹19.08 lakh crore in 2017-18. whereas at Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs.15.28 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against ₹14.0 lakh crore in 2017- 18.
- The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at Current Prices is estimated at Rs.55.58 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs.47.79 lakh crore in 2017-18. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs.45.86 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs.40.88 lakh crore in 2017-18.
About Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation:
♦ Minister: D. V. Sadananda Gowda
♦ Minister of State: Vilay Goel
♦ Headquarters: New Delhi
About Central Statistics Office (CSO):
♦ Chief statistician of India (CSI): Pravin Srivastava
♦ Headquarters: New Delhi